KenPom’s Early Verdict: ACC Faces Harsh Reality in Preseason Rankings

KenPom’s Early Verdict: ACC Faces Harsh Reality in Preseason Rankings

You can almost smell college basketball in the air  that perfect mix of hardwood polish, tradition, and tension  and with it comes the first big jolt of preseason chatter: the KenPom rankings are out. But if you’re a fan of the ACC, well, this one might sting a little.

For years, the ACC has been synonymous with power and prestige  from Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski to Zion Williamson and Tyler Hansbrough  but according to the data-driven world of Ken Pomeroy’s analytics, that glory might be fading fast. The 2025–26 preseason KenPom rankings tell a sobering story: the once-dominant conference is slipping.

Out of the top 25, only two ACC teams make the cut. Just two.
Duke comes in strong at No. 7, their usual spot among the elites. Louisville, on the other hand, slides in at No. 14, a pleasant surprise after a few rebuilding seasons that saw turbulence both on the court and in the locker room. Beyond that? The numbers get grim.

Clemson lands at No. 32, just ahead of North Carolina, which sits at No. 33 overall  a placement that feels almost disrespectful to a program with such a storied past. For Tar Heel fans, that ranking cuts deep. After all, this is a program built on Final Fours, national titles, and legends in baby blue. But KenPom isn’t sentimental  it’s math, and math doesn’t care about banners.

So what exactly goes into these numbers?
KenPom’s formula revolves around Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM)  the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency, factoring in pace, opponent quality, and recent performance. It’s a brutally honest reflection of how a team really performs when possessions and pressure are equalized. It removes narrative and reputation. That’s why it often clashes with the eye test or preseason polls.

For North Carolina, the path forward is steep. Their upcoming schedule is a gauntlet  a brutal proving ground that will test whether this new-look Tar Heel squad can back up its potential. UNC will face Kentucky (No. 4), Kansas (No. 21), Michigan State (No. 25), and Ohio State (No. 27) — all top-30 programs according to KenPom’s algorithm. That’s not just a tough non-conference schedule; it’s a challenge to the program’s very identity.

But there’s another layer here  a warning shot across the ACC as a whole. For a conference that once defined the gold standard of college basketball, the numbers show a slow erosion of dominance. The Big 12, SEC, and even the Big Ten now appear to have a tighter grip on national relevance. And while Duke continues to hold the fort with consistent top-10 placements under Jon Scheyer, there’s a growing sense that the rest of the league is scrambling to keep up.

Still, numbers only tell part of the story. College basketball isn’t played in spreadsheets. It’s played in noisy arenas, under pressure, by players who don’t always fit neat statistical molds. North Carolina, for example, has made a habit of defying data. Last year’s midseason struggles gave way to flashes of brilliance late in the year, suggesting that when things click, they can still look like Carolina of old.

Meanwhile, Louisville’s resurgence has fans buzzing again, and Clemson continues to be that gritty program that no one wants to face in February. The ACC may be down in the algorithm, but on the court, experience and tradition still carry weight  and when tournament time comes, few leagues are as battle-tested.

The upcoming AP Top 25 poll, set for release on October 13, will likely paint a different picture one filtered through expectations and narratives instead of analytics. But for now, KenPom’s message is clear: if the ACC wants to reclaim its throne, it has to earn it possession by possession.

Because in Ken Pomeroy’s world, there are no shortcuts  just numbers, truth, and the long climb back to respect.

And for the ACC, that climb might just be starting now.