Duke enters the NCAA Tournament as a dominant force, widely expected to make a deep run to the Final Four in San Antonio. The Blue Devils, ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and holding the No. 2 overall seed in the 68-team tournament, boast an impressive 31-3 record and have suffered only one loss since Thanksgiving.
Their efficiency rating, measured by KenPom, stands at an astounding 38.15—the highest in the country since Duke’s 2001 championship team finished at 37.32. The only team to ever post a higher KenPom efficiency at this stage? The 1999 Duke squad, which recorded a 43.01 efficiency but ultimately fell to Connecticut in the national championship game. While this year’s Blue Devils have positioned themselves as one of the most statistically dominant teams in recent history, there are no guarantees in March Madness, a tournament known for its unpredictability.
Duke’s journey through the East Region won’t be easy. The field includes last year’s Final Four participant, Alabama, as well as Wisconsin, the Big Ten tournament runner-up. Arizona, the No. 4 seed, ranks 14th nationally in KenPom efficiency, while No. 5 seed Oregon has compiled an impressive résumé with victories over Alabama, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, and Maryland.
Before Duke can set its sights on the Final Four, it must first navigate the early rounds. In their opening game, the Blue Devils will be heavy favorites against either American University (22-12) or Mount St. Mary’s (22-12), two No. 16 seeds that will face off in a First Four matchup in Dayton on Wednesday. The winner of that game will take on Duke at 2:50 p.m. Friday at Lenovo Center.
While Duke’s historically high KenPom rating suggests a significant mismatch, history has shown that even powerhouse teams aren’t immune to early upsets. The Blue Devils have previously fallen to lower-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament, including a stunning 2014 loss to No. 14 seed Mercer in this same Raleigh venue.
As the tournament unfolds, Duke will need to prove its dominance on the court, overcoming the challenges and unpredictability that make March Madness one of the most thrilling spectacles in sports.
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