Why Ace Bailey Is the Most Polarizing Prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft

Why Ace Bailey Is the Most Polarizing Prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft—and Where He Fits Best

The 2025 NBA Draft class is stacked with talent, and at the top of the conversation are familiar names: Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick out of Duke, and Dylan Harper, the dynamic Rutgers guard expected to go No. 2. But just a few spots behind them sits the most polarizing figure in the class Rutgers’ own Ace Bailey, a dazzling scorer whose upside has evaluators both excited and hesitant in equal measure.

He’s been called everything from the next Kevin Durant to a potential draft bust. He’s either a future NBA All-Star or a risky pick with questionable decision-making. So what’s the truth behind Ace Bailey’s rollercoaster draft stock and where would he fit best?

The Ace Bailey Enigma

From the moment Ace Bailey arrived at Rutgers as part of the highest-ranked recruiting class in school history, expectations were sky-high. Teaming up with fellow five-star Dylan Harper, the duo was supposed to lead the Scarlet Knights to March glory. Instead, Rutgers missed the NCAA Tournament entirely, becoming the first team ever to do so while housing two top-five NBA Draft prospects.

The result? Bailey enters the draft process under an unusually harsh microscope.

At 6-foot-7.5 (measured without shoes at the NBA Combine), Bailey came in shorter than expected. Rutgers listed him at 6-foot-10, and the drop in official height while not disqualifying does raise questions about how he’ll hold up defensively at the NBA level.

But make no mistake: his offensive game is why teams are drooling.

Offensive Upside: Michael Porter Jr. Vibes

Comparisons in the draft process can be lazy. But in Bailey’s case, the one that sticks is Denver Nuggets sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr. a high-level shotmaker with size, length, and the ability to hit contested jumpers from anywhere on the court.

Let’s compare the two:

They’re nearly identical in wingspan and reach, with Bailey possessing a slightly leaner frame.

And like Porter, Bailey’s game thrives on tough shot-making. He told reporters at the NBA Combine that what fans might call “bad shots” are actually what he trains for.

“What might be a bad shot to you, you don’t work on it. I work on it,” Bailey said.

The numbers back him up. According to Synergy Sports, Bailey shot 48.1% on 81 guarded jumpers last season a staggering number that showcases his confidence and skill in high-difficulty situations. On unguarded jumpers, oddly enough, he was much worse, shooting just 30.3%. Nearly two-thirds of his shots came from the midrange.

That shot diet is part of what makes him polarizing. Is he a gifted scorer with elite touch, or a ball-stopper who settles too often? That’s the crux of the debate.

Best Team Fits in the Lottery

While Bailey’s stock fluctuates between picks No. 3 and No. 6, several teams could unlock his full potential. Here are a few ideal landing spots:

Philadelphia 76ers (Pick No. 3)

With Joel Embiid anchoring the paint and Tyrese Maxey flourishing as a guard, the Sixers need a third offensive weapon. Bailey could slot in as a wing scorer with tremendous upside, taking pressure off their stars while developing into a long-term cornerstone.

Charlotte Hornets (Pick No. 4)

The Hornets have young cornerstones in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, and Bailey’s scoring could complement both. His ability to create his own shot would add another dimension to their offense if the coaching staff can refine his shot selection.

San Antonio Spurs (Pick No. 5 or 6)

If they don’t take him at No. 2 with Harper, the Spurs could pair Bailey with Victor Wembanyama for a terrifying inside-out combo. San Antonio has the infrastructure, coaching, and patience to let Bailey develop without the pressure to produce immediately.

What Makes Bailey So Polarizing?

The reasons are layered:

• Inconsistent decision-making
• High-volume, low-efficiency stretches
• Overreliance on isolation and midrange play
• Measured shorter than expected

And yet, teams keep coming back to this: the flashes are breathtaking. When Bailey is on, he looks like a player who could average 25 points per game in the NBA. He moves like a guard, shoots like a wing, and has just enough bounce and length to project upside as a defender and rebounder.

Final Thoughts: Buy the Upside or Fear the Floor?

Ace Bailey might not be the safest pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, but he could be the most explosive. His combination of shot-making, size, and self-belief makes him a tantalizing bet for teams that believe in modern positional versatility and offensive creativity.

He’s not Cooper Flagg. He’s not even the top prospect on his college team. But five years from now, we may look back and realize Ace Bailey had the highest ceiling in the entire draft.

All it takes is the right fit and the right coach to believe in his wild, unconventional game.