All three of the recipients of the 2026 Duke basketball offer are still in the top 10.
Brandon McCoy Jr., a 6-foot-4, 170-pound junior guard, was ranked first overall in the 2026 class by On3 and the 247Sports 2026 Composite when he visited the Duke basketball team in early November from St. John Bosco High School (Calif.).
In the composite standings, he remains at the top.
However, McCoy dropped two spots to No. 3 in the On3 rankings this week, so that might soon change. Tyran Stokes, a five-star forward from Notre Dame High School (Calif.), rose to the top, while Christian Collins, a teammate from St. John Bosco, vaulted to No. 2.
To be fair to Brandon McCoy Jr., who has been sidelined for more than a month due to injury, he was offered by Duke basketball head coach Jon Scheyer in July and has since drawn Blue Devil coaches to his school.
Scheyer and his team are still in the running for the other two high school juniors who received offers from Durham: Jordan Smith Jr., a five-star guard from Paul VI Catholic High School (Va.), and Miikka Muurinen, a five-star forward from Compass Prep (Ariz.).
Muurinen is ranked seventh in the cycle based on the most recent On3 report. Additionally, Smith is ranked No. 8 overall and visited the Blue Devils the same weekend as McCoy.
Duke basketball, the presumptive number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, is treading carefully.
Duke basketball is on track for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but even one misstep could jeopardize its position
The Blue Devils, now 12-2 overall and 4-0 in the ACC following an 89-62 win over SMU on Saturday, remain ranked No. 4 in the latest AP Poll. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi also projects Duke as a No. 1 seed in his Bracketology, alongside Auburn, Tennessee, and Iowa State—the same top four teams in the AP rankings for three consecutive weeks.
Duke’s case for a No. 1 seed is strong. The team is 4-2 in Quadrant 1 games and has not lost outside that category. Additionally, Duke ranks No. 2 overall at KenPom, boasting the ninth-best offensive efficiency and the third-best defensive efficiency. Only Iowa State shares the distinction of being in the top 10 in both categories.
However, the Blue Devils face a unique challenge. While their dominance warrants their spot on the top seed line, the competition in the ACC pales in comparison to other powerhouse conferences like the SEC and Big 12. These leagues, which are projected to send more teams to the NCAA Tournament, provide more Quadrant 1 opportunities, allowing teams to absorb losses without significant damage to their seeding.
In contrast, Duke’s ACC competition is weaker. The next highest ACC team in Lunardi’s predictions is Pittsburgh as a No. 6 seed, with Clemson as a No. 7 and SMU and North Carolina barely making the field. Meanwhile, the SEC is projected to send 12 teams, the Big Ten 11, and the Big 12 eight. This disparity leaves Duke with only four remaining Quadrant 1 games on its schedule, while 10 of its final 17 matchups are against Quadrant 3 or 4 opponents.
A single slip-up against a lower-tier ACC team could knock Duke off the No. 1 seed line, possibly even jeopardizing a No. 2 seed if multiple losses occur. While the Blue Devils have cruised through the ACC thus far, winning by an average margin of 21.8 points, the margin for error is razor-thin.
To secure a No. 1 seed, Duke likely needs to finish no worse than 18-2 in ACC play and win the conference tournament. While this is achievable given their current form, the team must maintain its focus and consistency to navigate the tightrope of their remaining schedule and maintain their place atop the NCAA Tournament projections.
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