Will Mark Pope get his first NCAA Tournament victory?
March Madness has arrived, friends!
Mark Pope, just 11 months after taking over as head coach of Kentucky basketball, has led the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament, where they are seeded third. However, Kentucky has lost in the first round as a 3-seed or higher in two of the last three seasons, and the school has not advanced to the second weekend since 2019.
Will Pope win his first NCAA Tournament and make a run?
The Troy Trojans, seeded 14th, will be the first challenger. Troy, under by sixth-year head coach Scott Cross, is making their first NCAA Tournament participation since 2017 and its third overall.
The Trojans, dubbed a mid-major counterpart of Texas A&M, are a tough team with good defensive and rebounding averages. They’re exactly the type of club that can muddy the waters and turn this into an ugly NCAA Tournament game in which neither side builds a significant lead while scrapping for a win.
Let’s look at the matchups.
Win the rebounding battle.
The Trojans’ strong suit is offensive rebounding, which ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.7%) and twelfth in offensive rebounds per game (11.8).
Fortunately for the Wildcats, they have faced and defeated several teams who excel at offensive rebounding, including Texas A&M (1st), Florida (8th), and Duke (25th).
Kentucky will have a size edge, as Troy’s tallest starter is 6-foot-8. However, they attack the boards as a group. The Wildcats must be the team that wants it the most.
Dictate the pace
Troy is a squad that prefers to play slowly and “muck it up,” which has historically resulted in NCAA Tournament shocks. While Kentucky may have the potential to overwhelm a 14-seed, this Trojans team will most likely prevent that from happening.
Troy is a surprisingly athletic squad, but Kentucky has both size and talent advantages. impose your will on a weaker team.
Or, as Mark Fox instructs the squad, “Be the hammer, not the nail.”
Win the turnover battle.
Troy’s second-most important strength is their ability to manufacture turnovers, making their opponents to turn the ball over more than 13 times per game and averaging nine thefts per game.
However, they suffer with ball control, coughing it up more than 13 times a game on average. Expect this game to have a high turnover rate.
Taking care of the ball, which was always a strength for Kentucky, has become more difficult this season as guard injuries have increased. Over the previous nine games, Kentucky has turned the ball over an average of 12.5 times per game, including 16 against Alabama in the SEC Tournament.
As potent as the Wildcat offense is, they cannot afford to give away possessions or enable a below-average Troy squad to score easy points off mistakes.
Kentucky Wildcats Basketball’s Path to the Final Four
If you look at Kentucky’s bracket, there should be few complaints.
Houston has the poorest offense among the one-seeds. Kentucky will face one of the two seeds, Tennessee, whom they know well and have defeated twice. The Vols remain a very dangerous team, but this is still preferable to having, say, Alabama as the second seed.
McNeese and Utah State have several frightening double-digit seeds. There are no obvious’matchup nightmares’ for Kentucky. Even without Jaxson Robinson, everyone in Kentucky’s region seems to be beatable, which didn’t seem possible if Alabama, Florida, or Auburn were in the mix.
Another significant advantage is travel. From a geographical viewpoint, Milwaukee and Indianapolis are the greatest places for supporters to go to and are easily within reach for Kentucky fans, especially with Coach Pope agreeing to assist with gas money.
Is Kentucky favored to advance to the Final Four from this region? No. In fact, FanDuel offers Kentucky the fourth-best chances to win at +1000. Houston (+120) and Tennessee (+370) are well ahead, but you might be shocked to see 8-seed Gonzaga with higher odds (+800).
Have injuries harmed the ceiling of this roster? Yes. In March, it’s all about giving yourself the opportunity. Pope and the Cats have an opportunity to make some noise. And you never know when an upset will widen a region’s outlook ahead of the Big Dance.
Overall, if Kentucky makes it to the Final Four, it will most likely face Troy, Illinois in the Orlando Antigua Bowl, Tennessee in Round 3, and a Houston team that is the most probable 1-seed to miss out.
It’s daunting, but not impossible.
Players to watch include
G Tayton Conerway, 6-3, 186 lbs.
Results: 14.3 PPG
4.8 APG
4.6 RPG.
Sun Belt Player of the Year:
F Myles Rigsby (6-6, 190 lbs).
12.0 PPG
4.0 RPG;
45.4% FG.
F Thomas Dowd
6-8, 225 pounds.
9.8 PPG
6.8 RPG; 1.0 SPG.
Kentucky Basketball against Troy Trojans
Time: 7:10 PM ET, March 21st.
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
TV Channel: CBS
Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, and Lauren Shehadi will announce the action.
March Madness Live is available online, but access requires a valid cable login. However, there is a free trial period of one hour.
Tom Leach and Jack Givens will handle the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: Check local listings on CBS Sports Network and March Madness Live!
Rosters: UK | Troy
Statistics to Know: UK | TROY.
KenPom: UK, TROY
Teamsheet: UK | TROY
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