Is Duke Basketball Losing Its Edge?

Is Duke Basketball Losing Its Edge? Post-Final Four Departures, Transfer Drama, and What’s Next for the Blue Devils

The Duke Blue Devils, long synonymous with excellence in college basketball, delivered a thrilling and dominant 2024–25 season that reignited belief in the program. Under third-year head coach Jon Scheyer, Duke returned to the Final Four for the first time in a decade and seemed poised to recapture its place atop the college basketball world.

But less than three weeks after that emotional run ended, Duke is already undergoing one of the most dramatic offseasons in recent memory—defined by major departures, a shifting recruiting identity, and growing pressure on Scheyer to maintain the momentum.

A Final Four Run Rekindles Hope

Duke finished the season 31–7 overall and 19–1 in the ACC, winning both the regular-season title and the ACC Tournament. Freshman wing Kon Knueppel emerged as a surprise star in March, earning ACC Tournament MVP after powering Duke to a championship win over Louisville.

But the season belonged to Cooper Flagg. The No. 1 recruit in the nation not only lived up to the hype but shattered it, averaging over 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. He swept ACC Player of the Year, ACC Rookie of the Year, and was a Naismith finalist. His standout performances in the NCAA Tournament—including a 30-point night against Arizona and 27 points against Alabama—carried Duke to the Final Four, where they fell just short in a 70–67 loss to Houston.

Though the Blue Devils came up just shy of a title, the season was widely seen as a turning point for Jon Scheyer—his first clear breakthrough on the national stage.

But Now… Major Departures Rock the Roster

Duke’s Final Four glow quickly gave way to the harsh reality of offseason attrition.

• Cooper Flagg is expected to declare for the NBA Draft, where he’s the likely No. 1 overall pick. His exit was anticipated, but still leaves a massive void in talent and leadership.
• Veteran guard Jeremy Roach entered the transfer portal and has since committed to Baylor for his final collegiate season, ending a storied Duke career that spanned four years.
• Sean Stewart (Ohio State) and TJ Power (Virginia) also transferred, seeking more prominent roles elsewhere.
• Sion James, a key defensive presence brought in from Tulane, exhausted his eligibility and is pursuing a professional career.

These exits have stripped the team of its veteran core and raised questions about the program’s ability to retain players—especially those who aren’t NBA-bound but still seek new opportunities elsewhere.

Recruiting Wins and Misses

While departures dominated headlines, Duke’s 2025 recruiting class remains elite:

• Cameron and Cayden Boozer, sons of Duke legend Carlos Boozer, headline the incoming group. Cameron, a powerful and skilled forward, is widely viewed as a future one-and-done lottery pick.
• Shelton Henderson, a dynamic five-star small forward from Texas, adds athleticism and versatility on the wing.
• Returners like Caleb Foster and Jared McCain’s younger brother, Jaylen McCain, are also expected to have expanded roles.

However, Duke hasn’t been able to fully capitalize in the transfer portal. They missed on several key targets, including Xavien Lee (Princeton) and Cedric Coward (Washington State), who are headed to other power programs. These near-misses highlight the growing challenge of balancing elite high school recruiting with the aggressive portal strategies employed by competitors like Kentucky and UConn.

Scheyer’s Strategy: Youth Meets Experience?

Jon Scheyer’s approach appears clear: build the team around elite freshmen, sprinkled with a few key veteran additions. But as the rest of college basketball leans heavily into the portal for proven experience, Duke’s reliance on high school stars could prove risky without veteran glue guys.

With no high-impact transfers yet secured and no return of key veterans, the pressure is now on Scheyer to find balance—quickly.

Conclusion: Crossroads or Comeback?

Duke basketball is walking a fine line. On one hand, a Final Four run, the emergence of Jon Scheyer’s coaching identity, and another top-ranked recruiting class point to a future as bright as ever. On the other, roster turnover, transfer portal misses, and rising competition raise valid concerns about whether the Blue Devils can sustain this level of success year over year.

Scheyer’s challenge is not only to replace superstar talent, but to reinvent Duke’s approach to modern roster-building—and do so without losing the identity that made the program iconic.

The 2025–26 season may be the defining year of the Jon Scheyer era.