“Cooper Flagg’s Next Move Could Cost Him Everything—What Will He Do?”

Cooper Flagg, the rising star of college basketball and the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, is facing a career-defining decision. After a phenomenal season at Duke, where he averaged 19.4 points per game and led the Blue Devils to an outstanding 28-3 record and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Flagg must now weigh the pros and cons of returning to college or making the leap to the NBA.

While remaining at Duke could further cement his legacy in college basketball, the financial implications of postponing his NBA career are enormous. Experts estimate that delaying his professional career by a year could cost him anywhere from $75 million to $125 million in potential earnings—a figure that includes his rookie contract, endorsement deals, and the opportunity to secure a lucrative second NBA contract earlier in his career.

The Financial Reality of the NBA

The NBA’s rookie salary structure is designed to provide high draft picks with substantial financial security right from the start. Recent No. 1 overall picks have signed four-year contracts worth approximately $50-55 million, and the ability to sign a second, far more lucrative contract after just a few seasons makes entering the league as soon as possible a financially sound decision.

For a talent like Flagg, who is expected to dominate at the NBA level, the long-term earning potential is staggering. Superstars often sign maximum contract extensions after their rookie deals, with figures reaching upwards of $250 million over five years. By delaying his NBA entry by a year, Flagg would also push back his eligibility for this kind of deal, which could cost him tens of millions in future earnings.

Moreover, there are significant endorsement opportunities awaiting him in the NBA. As a top pick and a marketable young star, Flagg would likely attract major shoe deals and sponsorships from companies eager to capitalize on his rising profile. While NCAA athletes can now profit from Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, those earnings still pale in comparison to what elite NBA players bring in from endorsements.

The Appeal of Returning to Duke

Despite the financial drawbacks, there are compelling reasons why Flagg might choose to remain at Duke for another year.

1. Legacy and Championships – Flagg has the opportunity to cement himself as one of the greatest college players in recent memory. If he returns and leads Duke to a national championship, he could go down in Blue Devils history alongside names like Christian Laettner and Zion Williamson.
2. Personal and Skill Development – While Flagg is already seen as an elite prospect, another year in college could allow him to refine his game even further, especially in areas like perimeter shooting, decision-making, and defensive versatility.
3. College Experience and Loyalty – Some players genuinely enjoy their college years and the camaraderie of playing in front of packed student sections. Flagg could simply love the experience of playing for Duke and want to make the most of it before transitioning to the NBA.

The Risk of Delaying the NBA Jump

However, choosing to stay at Duke is not without risk.

• Injury Concerns – One of the biggest fears for elite prospects is suffering a serious injury in college, which could affect their draft stock and long-term earning potential. While insurance policies exist for high-profile athletes, they cannot fully compensate for lost NBA earnings if an injury significantly impacts a player’s career trajectory.
• Draft Stock Fluctuations – The NBA landscape is constantly changing, and while Flagg is currently the projected No. 1 pick, another season in college exposes him to the risk of being surpassed by another emerging prospect. A slight dip in performance or the emergence of another elite player could push him down the draft board, which would directly affect his initial contract earnings.
• Delaying NBA Development – Many experts argue that top prospects benefit more from NBA-level training, competition, and coaching than from additional college experience. Flagg’s game might develop more effectively in the professional environment rather than in the NCAA.

What’s Next for Flagg?

Cooper Flagg’s decision will be one of the most closely watched stories in basketball over the coming months. If he declares for the 2025 NBA Draft, he will almost certainly be the No. 1 pick, securing a massive payday and beginning his journey toward NBA stardom. However, if he chooses to return to Duke, he will have the chance to chase a national title and further develop his game—albeit at a steep financial cost.

Regardless of his choice, Flagg’s future in basketball looks incredibly bright. Whether it’s in Durham or on an NBA court next season, one thing is certain: the basketball world will be watching.