This summer, Liverpool must decide what to do with Fábio Carvalho. One transfer option appears to be appealing, but a warning from Manchester City is being played out in real time
Manchester City fans are eager to bring up net transfer spend when discussing competitive imbalances with Liverpool and other rivals. That was not always the case, with the Abu Dhabi owners spending heavily to establish the club in the first place — a period that is now the subject of numerous Premier League allegations — but the modern version of the club appears to be self-sustaining in many ways.
There are several reasons for this. For one thing, consistently spending large sums of money on a slew of squad players inevitably results in a revolving door of highly marketable assets. Manchester City, for example, was able to turn a quick profit on Ferran Torres and Danilo.
It also put money aside for Raheem Sterling last summer. Signed from Liverpool in 2015, the initial transfer fee has long been forgotten by many ‘net spend’ calculations, but Manchester City sold him for nearly the same amount it cost to buy him in the first place.
However, one of the more overlooked ways in which Manchester City is now able to consistently make money is through its academy. In some ways, this is just an added benefit of being at the top of the game — youth players’ values are inflated simply by being associated with the club, especially if they get a few first-team minutes.
Manchester City has also invested heavily and effectively in its academy system, producing a number of very talented players. Phil Foden and possibly Rico Lewis could save a lot of money on future transfer fees.
Meanwhile, Gavin Bazunu and Roméo Lavia have already accumulated funds for the club after being sold to Southampton last summer for a fee.
With all due respect to Bazunu, the deal to sell the goalkeeper appears to be nothing short of brilliant. No goalkeeper in the league underperformed by a greater margin as the Saints were eliminated despite the fact that expected goals indicated they should have narrowly survived.
However, there may already be some seller remorse in the case of Lavia. A year later, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool are all said to be interested in signing the midfielder (Football Insider), with a fee of at least $56 million (£45 million/€52 million) being quoted.
Manchester City saw Rodri’s potential but felt he blocked any immediate path to minutes. When the eventual transfer plan was devised, there must have been high-fives all around — pure profit to bank on the books, but a buy-back clause set at a relatively reasonable $50m (£40m/€47m) in the event Lavia fulfilled his considerable promise.
A year later, there are rumors that Liverpool may try to do something similar with Fábio Carvalho. He is not an academy prospect, unlike Lavia, and was signed from Fulham last summer. However, the Reds paid a nominal fee and would profit from any sale — with a buy-back serving as a potential insurance policy.
It’s a very similar situation. Liverpool is still aware of Carvalho’s immense talent, but Jürgen Klopp is currently unable to accommodate him. Especially in light of a major summer rebuild, there may be an incentive to bank some money now while still holding an option on the 20-year-old.
However, the current situation with Lavia should serve as a stark warning. Manchester City’s option does not become active until next summer, as is customary with buy-back clauses. According to Football Insider, Pep Guardiola’s team may even join the bidding, outbidding its own dormant buy-back clause and paying around $39 million (£31 million/€36 million) more than he was sold for last year.
What appeared to be a no-lose transfer strategy has gone horribly wrong. Manchester City must either sign Lavia back on the open market, taking a significant financial hit in the process, or risk losing one of its brightest alumni to a rival. Furthermore, even if the clause was active, other clubs could match the bid and the player could choose to move elsewhere.
Perhaps this is why, according to The Athletic, Liverpool is ‘adamant’ that Carvalho will only be loaned out this summer, despite RB Leipzig’s interest. Manchester City may like to portray itself as a model of market efficiency, but this is one trick Klopp should be wary of replicating.
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