College Basketball Offseason Winners and Losers: Who Rose, Who Fell, and Who’s Ready to Rule 2025-26

College Basketball Offseason Winners and Losers: Who Rose, Who Fell, and Who’s Ready to Rule 2025-26

The long summer months between the nets being cut down and the first official fall practices often serve as the great equalizer in college basketball. Championships are celebrated, coaches scramble to reload, and entire rosters are flipped in the chaos of the transfer portal. By the time October rolls around, the sport rarely looks the same as it did in March.

This offseason was no different. From Florida’s bid to repeat as national champions to Memphis’ ongoing turbulence under Penny Hardaway, the last few months have offered clarity about which programs are on the rise and which are suddenly fighting uphill battles.

Here’s a deep dive into the winners and losers of college basketball’s wild offseason.

Winner: Florida Reloads After Championship Glory

It’s one thing to cut down the nets. It’s another to reload with the intent to do it again.

Florida, fresh off its magical run in San Antonio, wasted no time building a roster capable of defending its crown. The Gators didn’t just dabble in the transfer portal—they dominated it, reeling in Arkansas star Boogie Fland, Princeton’s floor general Xaivian Lee, and sharpshooter AJ Brown from Ohio. Combined with the return of veterans like Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, Todd Golden has rebuilt a roster with a blend of youth, experience, and proven production.

On paper, it’s a top-10 team with championship DNA. Will they win 36 games again? Probably not. But with +1700 odds to repeat (FanDuel), Florida has every reason to believe another deep March run is in the cards.

Winner: Rick Pitino and St. John’s Roll It Back

Rick Pitino has been around long enough to know how fleeting momentum can be in college basketball. His St. John’s team found that out the hard way in last year’s NCAA Tournament.

So, what did the Hall of Famer do? He doubled down.

The Red Storm landed the No. 1 transfer class in the nation, headlined by Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon, and Dillon Mitchell all former five-star recruits. Add in Bryce Hopkins and the return of Zuby Ejiofor, and Pitino has built a roster with the defensive tenacity he craves but the scoring punch last year’s group lacked.

Pitino’s own words this summer said it best: “Hard working group that excels athletically and shoots the lights out. Thank God.”

If anyone thought last season’s run was a fluke, St. John’s is here to prove otherwise.

Loser: Memphis Can’t Escape the Noise

For Memphis, the offseason could’ve been about quiet progress. Instead, it became chaos.

• NCAA fines and probation for academic fraud.
• A key transfer arrested on assault charges.
• A rejected Big 12 expansion bid.

And that’s just the highlight reel.

Penny Hardaway’s program has lived under a cloud of NCAA scrutiny for years, but this summer brought fresh turbulence that overshadowed roster moves and recruiting wins. For a team that desperately needed stability after a first-round tournament exit, the Tigers instead look unsettled, distracted, and once again fighting narratives that have little to do with basketball.

Winner: The Bluegrass State is Back

Last offseason, Kentucky and Louisville were defined by uncertainty. Not anymore.

• At Kentucky, Mark Pope has reinvigorated Big Blue Nation. With a top-10 recruiting class, key transfers, and a crop of returnees, the Wildcats look ready to build on last year’s Sweet 16 berth. Pope’s energy and modern style of play have quickly erased doubts about his transition from BYU to Lexington.
• At Louisville, Pat Kelsey’s “ReviVille” movement is in full swing. After inheriting a broken program, Kelsey turned 8-24 into 27-8 in just one season. Now, he’s landed Mikel Brown Jr., one of the most electric young guards in the country, and positioned the Cardinals for a preseason top-10 ranking.

Kentucky and Louisville thriving simultaneously? The Bluegrass is buzzing again.

Loser: March Madness Expansion Proponents

For months, it seemed inevitable: March Madness was heading toward expansion.

But in August, the NCAA committees made it official—68 teams remain the magic number, at least for now.

Proposals for 72 or 76 were shelved, leaving expansion advocates frustrated while traditionalists breathed a sigh of relief. Expansion isn’t dead, but for now, the perfect chaos of 68 lives on.

Loser: Kevin Willard’s Rocky Transition

Few coaching changes have felt messier than Kevin Willard’s offseason.

Leaving Maryland for Villanova, Willard endured public backlash, burned bridges with Terrapins fans, and entered a new job with limited momentum. Only two players followed him, neither of whom were major contributors. His recruiting haul sits at No. 48 nationally.

To make matters worse, expectations in the Big East remain sky-high. For a coach known for maximizing less, his first season in Philadelphia may require patience.

Winner: Big Ten Depth and Dominance

If any conference “won” the offseason, it was the Big Ten.

• Purdue brings back Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn.
• Michigan reloaded with Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, Elliot Cadeau, and Morez Johnson Jr.
• Illinois added Andrej Stojakovic, Zvonimir Ivisic, and a wave of Serbian imports.

BartTorvik projects four Big Ten teams in the top 10 and nine inside the top 30. The league hasn’t won a title since 2000, but this season could be its best chance in decades.

Loser: Everyone Not Named Houston in the Big 12

The Big 12 remains the toughest conference in America, but one truth has become obvious: everyone’s chasing Houston.

Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars are stacked again, returning JoJo Tugler, Milos Uzan, and Emanuel Sharp while enrolling five-star phenom Chris Cenac Jr. Kansas landed Darryn Peterson, BYU made waves with AJ Dybantsa, and Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas Tech all retooled but the gap remains.

The Cougars have won the league by multiple games in both of their first two seasons in the Big 12. Expect the same story again.

Winner: Duke Extends Its Triangle Supremacy

North Carolina and NC State hoped to close the gap. Duke only widened it.

Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils landed the No. 1 recruiting class featuring Cam and Cayden Boozer plus five-star guard Dame Sarr. Combine that with last year’s 19-1 ACC run, and Duke enters 2025-26 as a likely preseason No. 1.

Meanwhile, UNC faces questions about Hubert Davis’ job security, and NC State prepares for growing pains under Will Wade. In the Triangle, it’s Duke and everyone else again.

Final Word

Every offseason reshapes the college basketball landscape, but this year feels particularly seismic. Florida and Duke look ready to battle for No. 1. The Big Ten may finally end its title drought. Kentucky and Louisville have restored pride in the Bluegrass.

But for programs like Memphis and coaches like Kevin Willard, the summer was more storm than sunshine.

When the ball tips in October, the winners will try to validate their momentum and the losers will fight to prove the offseason chatter wrong.