Three-Point Shooting and Defense: What Advanced Stats Say About the 2025-26 Kentucky Basketball Team
In the early days of Mark Pope’s tenure at Kentucky, there was cautious optimism surrounding what the former BYU coach could build in Lexington. Now, just a few months into his first full offseason, Pope isn’t just exceeding expectations he’s orchestrating what may become one of the most well-balanced and strategically sound rosters in all of college basketball.
The numbers back it up.
Whether it’s through traditional scouting or deep-diving into analytics, the advanced metrics tell a promising story for Big Blue Nation heading into the 2025-26 season. According to EvanMiya.com, one of the most respected advanced statistical platforms in the college basketball world, Kentucky’s current transfer class ranks second nationally just behind Michigan. That’s not just about talent acquisition; it’s about fit, versatility, and purpose.
Roster Rankings Reflect a Masterclass in Team Construction
On3 Sports ranks Kentucky’s transfer class as the second-best in the nation. 247Sports places the Wildcats at No. 5. But what makes this group stand out isn’t just the raw skill of the incoming players it’s how they complement each other.
“It’s not just that Kentucky signed talented players,” said analytics expert Evan Miyakawa on Kentucky Roll Call. “They signed the right players players who fit Pope’s system, and who fill glaring needs that last year’s team couldn’t quite overcome.”
That includes more athleticism, more defense, and, despite concerns, potentially much more efficient three-point shooting.
Jaland Lowe: The Engine of the Offense
At the center of Kentucky’s revamped roster is former Pitt guard Jaland Lowe, a high-usage player who checks nearly every box Mark Pope could want in a floor general. Lowe averaged 14.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game last season. He was Pitt’s do-it-all playmaker, and now he’ll be tasked with orchestrating a far more talented cast in Lexington.
“He’s a very capable scorer, but even more so, he’s an outstanding playmaker,” said Miyakawa. “With so many elite athletes and scorers on this Kentucky team, Lowe’s ability to facilitate and control the game is going to be critical.”
One concern with Lowe on paper is his 26.6% three-point shooting at Pitt. Pope’s system depends heavily on spacing and perimeter shooting so will this be an issue?
Not likely, says the analytics.
“I project Lowe to shoot in the 33-34% range from three next year,” Miyakawa explained. “That’s a significant jump, and it’s based on a comprehensive adjustment model that accounts for shot quality, defensive pressure, and developmental trajectory.”
For context, last year’s Kentucky team saw Lamont Butler improve from 30% to 39.1% from deep, and Ansley Almonor one of Pope’s new additions shot 42.4% from three, building off an already stellar reputation as a sharpshooter.
In short: Pope’s system improves shooters, and Lowe has the tools to take that leap.
Kentucky’s 3-Point Shooting Outlook: Concerns Overblown?
“I don’t think three-point shooting will be a weakness,” Miyakawa said. “Will it be elite? Maybe not. But it will be serviceable — and when combined with everything else this team brings, that’s more than enough.”
The Wildcats are expected to be middle-of-the-road in the SEC in 3-point shooting, which would already be an upgrade from some recent Calipari-led teams that lacked spacing. Pope has brought in players who may not be elite snipers but are confident and capable from deep a necessary improvement in the modern game.
The Real Strength: Lockdown Defense
Where this team could truly separate itself, however, is on the defensive end. After being bullied in the paint at times last season, Pope responded by targeting elite defenders and high-level athletes and Jayden Quaintance may be the crown jewel of that defensive upgrade.
Standing 6’10” with a 7’3” wingspan and elite timing, Quaintance was ranked by EvanMiya.com as the No. 1 defensive player in the transfer portal this cycle.
“He’s disruptive,” said Miyakawa. “He was already a defensive force as a freshman before the ACL injury. If he returns to full strength and all signs point to him doing so he could be an All-American on the defensive end.”
Quaintance isn’t just a rim protector. He moves his feet on the perimeter, he rebounds with purpose, and he has a strong understanding of positioning. His upside is tremendous, and his presence alone will immediately elevate Kentucky’s interior defense.
Mo Dioubate Adds More Interior Muscle
Joining Quaintance in the paint is Mo Dioubate, a rugged and explosive forward who arrives from Alabama the same team that pushed Kentucky around in the post last season. Now, he’s one of the enforcers tasked with making sure that doesn’t happen again.
Dioubate’s athleticism and motor are off the charts, and he gives Pope another high-energy option to crash the glass, switch on defense, and challenge shots.
What Does It All Mean for Kentucky’s 2025-26 Outlook?
In short: this is a team built with a plan something that hasn’t always been clear in recent years in Lexington.
Pope has found:
- A high-IQ point guard in Lowe
- Versatile scorers who can stretch the floor
- Elite athleticism at the wing and forward spots
- Defensive anchors in Quaintance and Dioubate
The roster doesn’t just look good on paper. It fits.
And while the Cats may not lead the SEC in three-point makes or total points scored, they won’t need to. If this team plays defense like the numbers suggest they can and if players like Lowe and Almonor hit shots at expected rates Kentucky could be not just good, but great.
As Miyakawa put it: “Mark Pope isn’t just building a team. He’s building a contender.”
Big Blue Nation, the advanced stats have spoken and this may be the most complete Kentucky roster in a decade.
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