Ace Bailey: Future NBA Star or Draft-Day Wild Card?
Rutgers standout Ace Bailey could be one of the first names called in the 2025 NBA Draft, but there’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding his stock—and even more buzz. While Duke’s Cooper Flagg is the consensus No. 1 and Dylan Harper, Bailey’s Rutgers teammate, is widely expected to go No. 2 to the Spurs, Bailey’s draft fate is anything but clear.
Some scouts see him as a top-three pick, with the 76ers potentially pulling the trigger at No. 3. Others think he could slip to the Wizards at No. 6. Bailey is undoubtedly one of the most talented scorers in the class—he’s a dynamic shotmaker with size and flair. But his inconsistent decision-making and Rutgers’ stunning failure to make the NCAA Tournament, despite having two top-three prospects, have raised valid red flags.
Bailey’s polarizing nature mirrors last year’s discourse around Purdue big man Zach Edey. Opinions are all over the board—some believe Bailey is the next Kevin Durant, while others caution he could be all hype and no substance. His shot selection was erratic at Rutgers, but the results were often eye-popping: he hit 48.1% of his guarded jumpers last season, according to Synergy.
Still, Bailey didn’t measure quite as tall as advertised at the NBA Draft Combine. Though Rutgers listed him at 6’10”, he came in at 6’7.5″ without shoes—an expected but noteworthy drop. That said, his draft ceiling likely starts with the 76ers at No. 3, and it’s tough to imagine him falling beyond No. 6.
Team-by-Team Fit Breakdown:
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers:
The most natural fit. Bailey could thrive as a scoring threat alongside stars like Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. He wouldn’t need to carry the offense, and the Sixers could bring him along gradually. A low-pressure, high-upside landing spot.
No. 4 Charlotte Hornets:
More awkward. Charlotte needs a defensive-minded guard to complement LaMelo Ball—someone like Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe fits better. Still, if they slide Brandon Miller to shooting guard, Bailey could slot in at small forward. A risk, but with upside.
No. 5 Utah Jazz:
Not the dream outcome the Jazz hoped for after missing out on Flagg, but Bailey would still bring serious firepower to a rebuilding team. Utah’s crowded frontcourt could complicate the fit, but this is a case of “take the talent and sort it out later.”
No. 6 Washington Wizards:
A strong contender for the best fit after Philly. The Wizards are in full rebuild mode and need scoring. Bailey could get the green light early and grow alongside young talent like Bilal Coulibaly. There’s room to flourish without overwhelming expectations
In the end, Ace Bailey may not be the safest pick, but his ceiling is sky-high. The team that bets on him could be getting a future star—or a developmental project who needs time and structure. Either way, Bailey will be one of the most talked-about names come draft night.
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